Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canada’s Jobless Count Soars by 73k, Second-Worst Spike Since 2020
Canada’s job market just wiped out months of progress. The unemployment rate jumped 0.3 points to 6.8% in December, a 4-month high. It works out to 73.0k more unemployed people, the second-biggest jump since the pandemic began—bringing total unemployment to 1.6 million. Even more troubling is the shift in the composition of jobs, with the details being more indicative of a struggling economy than one suffering temporary setbacks.
Canada’s Trade Demand Is Running Hot, Undermining BoC Rate Cuts
Canada’s trade balance slid back into deficit—but not for the usual reasons. A $583 million merchandise trade shortfall in October followed a September surplus, driven by imports growing faster than exports. The shift points to robust domestic demand, not necessarily economic weakness. Without a rise in exports to offset the balance, the risks slant towards accelerating inflation and undermining the Bank of Canada’s position.
Canadian Affordability Crisis To Continue Through 2026: RBC
Canada’s largest bank doesn’t see much relief for the affordability crisis. RBC economists note that hourly wages have outpaced CPI since 2020, but remain behind necessities such as food and housing costs. The bank sees inflation moderating through 2026, but that’s still growth. Ultimately, they see the affordability problems continuing this year. Happy New Year, eh?
Canadian Temporary Resident Applications Plunge: India Drops, Ukraine Triples
Canada’s decline in finalized temporary resident applications. IRCC data shows the country processed 365.3k temporary resident applications in October, 27.8% lower than last year and the weakest volume for the month since 2021. Year-to-date, the country has processed 4.04 million applications, down 20.8% from last year. The decline was seen in most of the top ten applicant sources, with Ukraine (+227.6%) being a notable exception. The shift highlights how the country’s migration is being shaped less by economic factors and more by political ones.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto Real Estate Sales Hit 25-Year Low, Inventory Sets New Record
Toronto real estate’s losing streak continued last month, rolling back even the minor progress made. TRREB data shows 3,697 homes sold in December, capping off the weakest year for sales in 25 years. The cost of a typical home in the region has plummeted 27% since the peak, but hasn’t drawn more buyers. Combined with a new December record of 17.0k active listings, further downward pressure is mounting, with not much relief in sight.
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