Will the negative jobs report hold off a September rate hike?

The Fed hawks must feel very awkward today. Before the July Fed meeting, Fed Governor Chris Waller said that if the July CPI report came in hot, a July rate hike would be on the table. Since that day, CPI inflation came in as a big miss, PPI inflation came in as a big miss, and today the jobs number whiffed with a negative report: 103,000 negative revisions and wage growth at cycle lows. Yes, very awkward indeed because we have many hawks who wanted a rate hike in the last meeting, and stressed we need to hike rates to fight inflation and that the labor market is strong. So, is all this data enough to hold off a September rate hike with one more CPI report on the table? First let’s take a look at today’s job report because we do have some quirks here. From BLS: Both nonfarm payroll employment (-23,000) and the unemployment rate (4.1 percent) changed little in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment declined in local government education and retail trade. Employment continued to trend up in health care. Now, the government layoffs can be attributed to a school employment quirk, and I have joked about FHFA Director Bill Pulte’s major layoff binge when he ...