The Sydney suburbs where over 65s are set to surge revealed

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Sydney’s ageing population is forecast to forgoe traditional coastal havens for central and outer suburbs, with expected growth pushing over 65s across a variety of surprising locales.

The data from research company Informed Decisions is predicting NSW areas set to surge in 65s and over spotlighting the greatest growth suburbs by 2046.

Castle Hill leads the states aging population prediction with a 16,113 rise of 65s and over by 2046 followed by Austral recording a jump of 7,340 and Leppington with a rise of 6,827.

Suburbs that follow are Orange, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Bringelly, Lidcombe, Hurtsville and Auburn.

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According to the Demographics Group Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher, these emerging hotspots are influenced by the cost of living in Sydney.

Mr Kuestenmachr said the aging population will likely stay in larger family homes for longer and opt for intergenerational opportunities for affordability.

“It’s just the sheer force of the market — if they still want to keep living in Sydney which is increasingly not an attractive option for low or medium income households,” he said.

“It’s quite logical these 65 + cohort do not grow in the even more expensive areas in the inner suburbs.”

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Simon Kuestenmacher at Gold Coast Bulletin Future Gold Coast 2025 at Sea World Resort Conference Centre. Picture, Portia Large for Gold Coast at Large.

Simon Kuestenmacher. Picture, Portia Large for Gold Coast at Large.


Mr Kuestenmacher said the spotlight on the outer areas for growth was “no surprise” and will be driven mostly by people ageing into this cohort.

“They might not actually be downsizing at all, but they might be living in their house and just tick over the age of 65,” he said.

“You would expect this to be in outer suburban areas that were settled by families in their 30s.”

Mr Kuestenmacher said suburbs also factor new development.

“If there is land that can be bulldozed, it will eventually be bulldozed and they will put houses on there,” he said.

The increase in the ageing population is also being driven by those with equity in their homes, using this to downsize and invest.

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Paul Conti


Paul Conti of Ray White Castle Hill has been selling real estate in the suburb since 1998 and in his 26+ years on the ground, the veteran agent has spotted a clear shift in the aging population of the suburb.

“This trend is bang on,” he said.

“Baby boomers are downsizing from family homes, unlocking equity, and increasingly choosing apartments over houses for lifestyle benefits and to release cash to fund retirement, often early retirement.”

Mal and Kathy Walker are downsizing from their five-bedroom family home in Westleigh.

Their search began around the northern beaches before realising it was “too expensive”, leading them to purchase a unit at The Residences, Wahroonga.

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Mal and Kathy Walker


“It is a very central area, its minutes away from the M1, it has access to two different railway lines, it’s also surrounded by about four stations,” Mr Walker said.

The Walkers had lived right on the bush and a “real tick” was the units outlook onto a creek.

“If we are going to downsize that’s one thing, but to have a bit of a view and to look over a creek and a forest, that’s really attractive to us,” Mr Walker said.

Ms Walker said certain factors that drew them in such as the light-filled residence and walking trails helped prepare them to leave their family home.

“You have to feel emotionally pulled to the place but we realised the actual upkeep of the house we couldn’t physically do it,” she said.

They also valued the ability to travel with the lock up and leave and appeal for Kathy to work in the garden.

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Mal and Kathy Walker


Although they were happy to downsize, Mr Walker said there is difficulty to stay in proximity to the suburbs that you live.

“There’s not much cash left over, in fact we would be struggling to break even,” he said.

“You have settlement costs and have to pay a large stamp duty bill.

“I think that’s really something the state government will have to look at in order to ease the housing crisis is how to make people like us who are in their late 60s downsize so families can move into their homes.”

TOP AGEING POPULATION HOTSPOTS FORECAST IN NSW

GeographyName AgeName 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 Change

Castle Hill (NSW) 65 and over 7,962 9,199 10,526 12,128 13,971 16,113 8,151

Austral 65 and over 592 2,202 3,821 5,288 6,700 7,932 7,340

Leppington 65 and over 994 1,725 2,699 3,967 5,686 7,821 6,827

Orange 65 and over 7,164 8,504 9,629 10,508 11,244 11,700 4,535

Coffs Harbour 65 and over 6,176 7,461 8,580 9,507 10,156 10,595 4,419

Port Macquarie 65 and over 13,556 14,761 16,189 17,084 17,747 17,921 4,365

Bringelly 65 and over 478 400 472 1,313 2,831 4,675 4,197

Lidcombe 65 and over 2,520 3,647 4,539 5,300 5,888 6,501 3,981

Hurstville 65 and over 4,079 5,748 6,698 7,377 7,830 8,054 3,974

Auburn (NSW) 65 and over 3,908 4,727 5,590 6,365 6,972 7,648 3,740

Source: Informed Decisions

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