Terry Ryder, founder and managing director of Hotspotting, has released his latest report on the markets where home sales are rising and falling.
The days of boom-level home prices in Queensland may finally be over, with a new report suggesting the start of a market slowdown driven by an affordability crisis.
After five years of price growth, the affordability advantage that originally attracted buyers to the state has been “significantly eroded”, home sales are going downhill, and rising interest rates and cost of living pressures are weighing on households.
This house at 6 Comus Avenue, Ascot, is for sale. Sales are continuing to rise in the affluent inner Brisbane suburb, according to a new report.
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Brisbane stands out as the clearest underperformer among the major capitals in exclusive new figures from PropTrack, commissioned by property investment company, Hotspotting, that show the Queensland capital’s red-hot housing market may have reached its peak.
Hotspotting founder and managing director Terry Ryder said home sales peaked at 18,978 in September 2021 as interstate migration from Sydney and Melbourne drove unprecedented demand, but those numbers had since been declining steadily.
“The most likely explanations are the rapid price growth Brisbane experienced through 2021 to 2023, which has significantly eroded the affordability advantage that originally drove migration, combined with a normalisation of interstate buyer flows,” Mr Ryder said.
This house at 11 Gideon Gardens, Pimpama, is on the market for offers over $900,000. A new report has found home sales are declining in the suburb.
Terry Ryder, Australian real estate property analyst and commentator.
“At roughly 27 per cent below its September 2021 peak, Brisbane is in a very different position to its southern counterparts. Without a meaningful affordability reset or a new demand catalyst, the volume recovery story in Brisbane remains elusive.”
In the Brisbane local government area (LGA), the only rising markets for units are Clayfield, Toowong, Bulimba, and Mount Gravatt East, while the house markets still on the rise are Ascot, Chelmer, and Tarragindi.
The only Greater Brisbane LGA where there are more rising markets than consistent ones is Logan, with Eagleby and Rochedale South notable outperformers.
This four-bedroom house at 7 Hurlton St, Chelmer, is scheduled for auction on April 1. A new report has found house sales are rising in the suburb.
Redland City also has a number of rising markets, including Alexandra Hills and Cleveland.
But Mr Ryder stopped short of saying Brisbane’s property boom is over.
“I don’t want to get too excited about one quarter’s numbers,” Mr Ryder said. “Brisbane is a little bit against the trend with these numbers, and it surprised me a little bit. I’m just not convinced this is a trend yet.
“Brisbane’s still got a lot of momentum, and there are a lot of reasons why the momentum might continue.”
It comes as some economists say expected changes to housing-related policies such as the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) discount could put further downward pressure on the market, along with higher mortgage rates.
This house at 3 Earls Court, Alexandra Hills, is on the market. Sales in the suburb are on the rise, according to Hotspotting.
By the end of 2027, the Commonwealth Bank forecasts annual price growth in Brisbane to slow to about 4 per cent — down from the past year’s 15 per cent.
“As higher interest rates take hold, housing construction picks up, population slows, and affordability constraints become more binding, price growth in Brisbane is expected to slow,” CBA senior economist Trent Saunders said.
The evidence of a slowdown in some parts of Regional Queensland is more clear, according to the Hotspotting report, which shows sales are about 30 per cent below their September 2021 peak.
“What is most concerning about Regional Queensland is not the contraction itself, but the complete absence of recovery momentum since mid-2023,” Mr Ryder said.
This house at 16 Catalonia St, Kirwan, is going to auction. A new report reveals sales activity is rising in the Townsville suburb.
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The buyer frenzy in Rockhampton appears to be over, with a noticeable dip in sales activity in the last quarter.
Norman Gardens and Berserker remain consistent, but there is declining buyer activity in Parkhurst and Koongal.
It’s a similar scenario in Townsville, where sales last year were 14 per cent lower than in 2024. While sales activity is rising in Kirwan and Idalia, it’s declining in the markets of Aitkenvale, Burdell, Kelso, Mount Low, and Oonoonba.
Central Queensland markets have been booming for the past three years, but there are signs of the buyer frenzy slowing, particularly in Gladstone where sales have been trending south for the past 18 months.
This house at 252 Rockonia Rd, Koongal, is on the market for offers over $575,000. There’s been a noticeable drop in sales in Rockhampton in recent months.
“These regional cities have all had fantastic runs for more than three years, but (the growth) had to start to subside a little bit at some point,” Mr Ryder said.
“Originally, one of the things that inspired people…to buy there was the level of affordability. Investors could buy cheaply and get great rental yields, but that’s no longer the case. You can’t get 6 per cent-plus rental yields anymore. It’s more like 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent. The evidence is clear there’s a winddown and the peak has been passed.”
PropTrack economist Eleanor Creagh said it was possible the north Queensland market had peaked.
“We have seen the pace of growth slowing in both Cairns and Townsville,” Ms Creagh said. “It’s a normal part of the market cycle after they were consistently among the top regions in the country for growth over many years.”
But the Gold Coast market, which has been pumping strongly for five years, still has solid numbers, with rising sales for houses in Ashmore, Broadbeach Waters, Hope Island, Mudgeeraba and Surfers Paradise.
Among the unit markets, rising transaction levels are found in Miami and Palm Beach.
Pimpama is among the suburbs where sales have dropped.
“Gold coast price growth remains strong,” Ms Creagh said. “Prices are still lifting at a double-digit pace annually. There isn’t a significant slowdown.”
More than half of the Sunshine Coast and Noosa markets also have positive sales numbers. House markets where transactions are rising include Beerwah, Landsborough and Coolum Beach, while standouts among the unit markets include Noosa Heads, Buderim, and Kings Beach.
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