Mortgage rates have gone wild, so what’s next for housing? 

Wow, last week was one hell of a week for the bond market and mortgage rates climbed to 7.49% before settling at 7.43% as the bond market went wild with conflict headlines and hawkish Fed statements. Just last week in the Housing Market Tracker, I talked about what could push rates to 8% and a few of those variables came into play. How has this impacted the weekly housing data? Let’s take a look at one of the craziest weeks of the past few years. 10-year yield and mortgage rates In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75% The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60% What I have observed in the bond market is that after the first MOU deal broke apart in June and we were fighting with Iran during market hours, the 10-year yield and oil prices have moved more in lockstep than before. Last week was very wild. Last week I talked about what could get mortgage rates toward 8%.The case for 8% mortgage rates From last weekend: For me, the case for 8% is simple: the conflict needs to get worse. We are seven months into this conflict, and we have other parties joining the war, as the Houthis bombed a Saudi Arabian airpo...