Mortgage Rate Lock-In Persists, With Ultralow Rate Holders Showing Little Sign of Budging

The housing market's gradual thaw slowed at the start of the year, as nearly half of all outstanding mortgages remained locked in at rates of 4% or lower. In the first quarter of 2026, the share of mortgages with ultralow COVID-19 pandemic-era rates of 3% and below registered at 19.5%, barely budging from the end of last year, according to the latest quarterly outstanding mortgage report from the Realtor.com® economic research team.At the other end of the spectrum, the share of outstanding loans with rates of 6% or higher ticked up just 0.1 percentage points compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, to 22.1%, reflecting slower growth momentum than last year.Realtor.com senior economist Hannah Jones attributes this lull to a brief dip in mortgage rates below the 6% benchmark in February, before rates surged back up as war broke out between the U.S. and Iran, driving up oil prices and fueling inflation concerns."This means that well-qualified buyers likely secured mortgages below 6% in this period, contributing to a growing share of 5% to 6% mortgage holders and the leveling off of mortgages over 6%," says Jones. The rest of the rate distribution showed minimal movement between the fou...