America Doesn’t Have a Housing “Shortage” (It’s Something Much Worse)

Dave: We hear constantly that the United States is millions of homes short and the answer to high housing costs is simple, build more units. This is a belief I’ve had and talked about on this show many, many times. But research from Kirk McClure and Alex Schwartz reaches a totally different conclusion. After comparing household growth and housing production across US markets from 2000 to 2020, they found that most places had enough total housing, calling into question a major assumption investors are using to underwrite deals and plan their portfolios. Our guest today, Kirk McClure, is a professor emeritus at the University of Kansas and one of the study’s co-authors. Today, he’s joining us to go through the research behind the headline, how the study defined a shortage, what the data actually showed, why nearly 14 million vacant homes do not automatically solve the problem, and why Kirk believes affordability is driven more by lower incomes meeting higher prices than by too few units. I’m Dave Meyer. This is On the Market. Let’s get to it. Kirk, welcome to On the Market. Thanks so much for being here. Kirk: It’s a pleasure. Thanks for inviting me. Dave: Yeah, I’ve been looking for...