Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadians Are Leaving In Record Numbers, Most Are Prime-Aged Workers
Emigration, permanent residents or citizens leaving, reached a record high in 2025. A demographic breakdown reveals it’s even worse than it sounds, as most are prime-aged workers aged 25 to 49. Being in their family formation and peak earning years, it provides a sharp hit to future growth. At the same time, seniors increasingly represent a growing share of the outflow. The combination suggests this isn’t a matter of jobs, but broader pressures like affordability and quality of life.
More Canadian Businesses Plan Job Cuts Now Than During The Pandemic: BoC
The Bank of Canada’s latest business survey shows major job cuts ahead. The survey reveals 21% of firms plan to cut jobs within 12 months, the most since the 2015 oil recession. That’s right, fewer firms planned cuts during the pandemic. It’s an important reminder that temporary shocks (pandemic) are different from structural shocks.
Canadian Building Investment Soars On Taxpayer-Funded Rental Bubble
Canadian building investment just hit a new record, but it isn’t good news for real estate this time. Investment in building construction jumped 9.7% to $24.5 billion in November, up 16.6% from last year. Roughly 72% of the investment was residential building, primarily multi-family units. However, these aren’t condos due to consumer demand—they’re corporate-owned rental apartments. This isn’t a market-driven rebound, but a taxpayer-funded rental bubble to save the industry.
Toronto Real Estate Developers Just Had The Worst Year In 4 Decades
Greater Toronto real estate developers just had the worst year for sales on record. Home prices slid further in December, with single-family homes now down 25.4% since the 2022 peak. The decline was fueled by weak demand, with last year being the worst on record for new home sales in 41 years of data. Despite the considerable decline in prices, prices remain out of reach for end-users. That might change in 2026, as the year kicks off with record-low sales and a multi-year high for inventory.
Canadian Household Debt Hits Record $3.2T, But Growth Is Mostly Interest
Canadian household debt hit a new record $3.2 trillion in November, adding 4.4% (+$134.4 billion) over the past year. While that sounds like a massive gain, the slowing growth seems tepid when contrasted with rising inflation and interest rates. The latest CPI and 5-year benchmark rate can account for more than the entire gain.
Canada’s Inflation Accelerates, Rents Post 4th-Biggest Jump Since 1988
Canadian inflation is accelerating as the waning impact of gasoline price distortion fades. CPI’s annual growth accelerated to 2.4% in December, rising to 3.0% excluding gas. The soaring cost of essentials like food (+6.2%) is behind the sudden climb. One rare positive in the report was the slowing of shelter price growth, though it’s not a win for everyone. Homeowners have seen shelter costs rise 1.3%, way below the target rate of inflation. Renters weren’t so lucky, with rents rising 4.9%, marking the 4th largest increase since 1988.
English (US) · 