Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian GDP Growth 23% Smaller Than BoC Forecast Just 2 Days Ago
Canada’s economy is shrinking, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada. Real GDP was flat in November, following a 0.3% drop in October. As a result, the agency expects 2025 growth to hit just 1.3%, which is 23% below the Bank of Canada’s forecast issued two days earlier. The central bank’s estimate wasn’t pulled out of thin air, but appears to already be relying on upward revisions.
Nova Scotia Sees Largest Home Price Drop In Canada, PEI & Quebec Rise
Canada’s real estate correction has been largely confined to Ontario and BC, until now. CREA data shows only PEI and Quebec posted price growth in December, with two provinces stalling and the rest falling. Nova Scotia was the standout, with a sudden 3.2% (-$13,500) drop after months of resilience. The sharp decline hints the correction may finally be spreading. Ontario and BC might not be alone for much longer.
Canada Is In For A Major Population Growth Adjustment: BMO
Canada’s population growth is in for a major adjustment this year, according to economists at BMO Capital Markets. Following record (and destabilizing growth) from 2022 to 2024, policymakers implemented a two year pause on immigration based growth. Statistics Canada population projections now show virtually zero growth in the near-term, before slowly rising into 2029. Despite this short-term pause, it doesn’t appear to change much for the long-term. The difference between the agency’s latest projections and previous population projections for 2074, showing compound annual growth coming in smaller than most margins of error.
Canadians Already In A Per Capita Recession, BoC Rewrites History
The Bank of Canada’s latest monetary policy report shows headline GDP is growing, but per-capita it’s flat or falling. That means quality of life is likely deteriorating for the average household. The outlook was notably contradictory: the Bank acknowledged output was revised significantly higher, yet adjusted its models upward to preserve the appearance of an output gap.
Canadian Household Debt Is (Still) A Risk To Financial Stability: IMF
Canadian household debt has reached a mind-boggling $3 trillion, and remains a risk to the economy. That was the take from the IMF, warning that regulators should pay close attention. They expressed concerns specifically around non-bank lending, where there’s limited visibility into the growing segment. Ultimately, IMF directors conclude that strong supervision should be able to contain most of these risks. The strong supervision over the areas with a lack of visibility? Um, cool…
Canadian Developers Sit On Record Unsold Homes, Half In Toronto & Vancouver
Canadian real estate developers are sitting on a record 19,998 completed but unsold homes as of December, up 35.5% from last year. Nearly half (49.7%) are concentrated in Toronto and Vancouver, with the latter accounting for over 1 in 4 units nationwide despite its smaller size. The growing glut, combined with rising resale inventory, is likely to push prices lower in the country’s most expensive markets—a trend that often spills into smaller regions.
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