Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Mortgage Arrears Climb To Highest Since 2020
Canada’s largest banks are seeing more mortgage stress than typical these days. The CBA’s mortgage arrears rate climbed to 0.24% in September, up 4 basis points from last year and 10 basis points from the June 2022 lows. While that may not seem like much, it means that mortgages in arrears, those 90 days past due, climbed 63.2% to 12,040 mortgages in September. This is the most mortgages in arrears since September 2020 when the initial pandemic stress appeared. At the same time, Canadian banks have seen the total number of mortgages they hold fall 2.8% from peak, meaning they have about 150,000 fewer mortgages. Each mortgage delinquency amplifies arrears.
Canada Cuts Housing Budget 56% Despite Crisis, Defunds CMHC: PBO
Canada’s non-partisan budget watchdog isn’t impressed by the country’s latest housing plan. A new PBO analysis shows Canada plans to cut housing funding 56% by the end of 2029. It specifically notes that the CMHC will face $2.4 billion in cuts, warning this won’t just limit the ability to create new social housing, but threatens funding for existing stock. At the same time, it estimates the Crown Corp Build Canada Homes (BCH) will only add 26,000 homes over 5 years—an average cost of $500,000 per unit to accomplish just 2% of its goal.
Canada’s Job Boom: How 8k Jobs Lost In Reality Added 54k Jobs On Paper
Canada’s job market is booming—on paper. Seasonally adjusted data shows 54k jobs added in November, helping to push unemployment down 0.4 points to 6.1%—the lowest in over a year. Skeptical? You’re onto something: Unadjusted data shows nearly 8k jobs were actually lost. Seasonal adjustment models are distorting trends at a volatile time, resulting in a disconnect between reality and official data. It’s no wonder workers told StatCan last month they felt job security was at its lowest since the pandemic’s early days. Anxious workers don’t make substantial purchases when they’re worried about losing jobs, stressing the importance of data tuned to reality.
Canadian Real Estate Spillover: Rents Explode Higher In Cheap Cities
Canada’s fastest-rising rental prices are now in the country’s cheapest cities. Our analysis of Statistics Canada rental data reveals rental prices and growth demonstrate a strong inverse correlation (ρ ≈ -0.55). This is known as a spillover effect: Demand becomes oversaturated, pushing prices higher in surrounding markets. It’s the same concept as bubble contagion for sale prices, where the gap between the priciest and cheapest cities narrows. In both cases, it indicates that fundamentals are no longer driving those prices, leaving markets with more vulnerability to shocks.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto Real Estate Prices Down 25%, Record Inventory Flood Continues
Greater Toronto real estate prices have shed over 25% since the peak, and downward pressure is flaring up again. TRREB data reveals home sales fell 15.8% in November, marking one of the weakest months in over 15 years. Active listings surged 16.8% at the same time, marking the highest for November on record. Both supply and demand tend to be volatile in the winter, so traditionally, this wouldn’t mean as much. With more sellers pulling inventory and waiting for spring, combined with an incoming supply of investor-owned completions, this sets the stage for an interesting spring.
Vancouver Real Estate
Vancouver Real Estate Prices Dip, Inventory Surges To 13-Year High
Greater Vancouver real estate has resisted most of the downturn, but it’s out of luck. The price of a typical home dropped 0.3% to $1,123,700 in November, down 3.9% from last year and 10.8% below the 2022 peak. Home sales fell 15.4% to 1,846 units, nearly half the peak reported in 2021. At the same time, inventory climbed 14.4% to 15,149 active listings, the highest reported in November since 2012. Falling sales and soaring inventory mean more choice for buyers, but also set up downward pressure ahead of the spring market.
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