Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian Investor Mortgage Crackdown Set For 2026, Delayed 3 Years
Canada’s financial watchdog is finally moving its banks up to global risk standards after three years of delays. OSFI has told lenders to prepare to adopt the Basel III minimum output floor in Q2 2026, which will require banks to classify investor mortgages as 50% riskier than loans on owner-occupied homes. The move aims to reduce reliance on internal risk models, which often downplay reality and create systemic vulnerabilities. It may appear to be a crackdown on investors, but it’s actually a break for end-users: isolating investor risk prevents those costs from being passed on to all borrowers—and stops higher mortgage rates for regular buyers.
Canadian & US Real Estate Affordability Improved, Still Near Record Lows: BMO
Canadian and US housing affordability has improved, but it’s still nowhere near healthy. BMO Capital Markets notes both countries have seen significant improvements since 2024. Affordability is now at its best point in three years, but that’s still among the worst levels in decades. Before celebrating, the bank warns that the recovery still has a long way to go.
Canadian Insolvencies Accelerate, Hit Highest Level Since 2009
Canadian consumer insolvencies just hit a multi-year high, and the trend is accelerating again. The OSB logged 12,669 filings in September, up 10.6% from last year and the highest for the month since 2009. The 12-month rolling total is also re-accelerating, indicating that the summer slowdown was just a brief pause.
Canadian Job Growth Is All In On Big Business, Amplifying Risks: BMO
BMO is warning investors that Canada’s job growth is dangerously concentrated in large firms, masking and amplifying underlying risks. Companies with 500+ employees added 592,000 jobs year-to-date in 2025, while small firms shed 300,000 over the same period. Since large firms account for only 20% of total employment, the imbalance creates both concentration and recovery risk—small businesses are typically the first to hire coming out of a downturn.
Bank of Canada Survey Puts 1-In-3 Odds of Recession By March 2026
The Bank of Canada’s latest Market Participant Survey reveals a deterioration in sentiment among finance professionals. Respondents now put roughly 1-in-3 odds on a recession occurring within six months—nearly double last year’s estimate. What makes this round more ominous is the distribution shift: pessimists grew darker, and even the most optimistic participants are starting to concede the risk.
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