Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canadian GDP Now Shows Recession, BMO Says Not Quite
Canadian GDP surprised the market by falling for a third time in the past year. Real GDP fell 0.1% annualized in Q1 2026, meaning the economy now fits the traditional definition of a technical recession. Despite the recession label, BMO argues it may overstate the current damage. The bank told investors the economy has stalled, even if the damage is not yet severe. But the decline was small enough to be a rounding error, with a few positives in the data. Its biggest takeaway is that this throws a wet blanket on any rate hike discussions.
Canadian Hiring Weakens As Job Vacancies Hit Near Decade-Low
Hiring ambitions are turning into one of the most ominous signs for Canada’s economy. The country had 500,340 vacant jobs in March, down 3.2% and the weakest March since 2017. At the same time, payroll jobs fell 0.15%. That’s often brushed off as retirements, but those workers aren’t being replaced through vacancies.
Canada’s Active Business Count Falls To A 28-Month Low
The number of active businesses in Canada fell 192 firms to 935,791 in February. It was the fewest businesses operating since October 2023, marking a 28-month low. However, a record 46,785 new businesses opened, meaning this isn’t due to a lack of aspiring entrepreneurs. The churn is the problem, as the number of openings is almost entirely offset by closures.
Canadian Building Investment Falls Despite Public Incentives
Canadian building investment slid 1.3% to $22.6 billion in March, hitting a 5-month low. The drop was due to residential investment more than offsetting the 0.6% advance in non-residential. Falling residential investment is likely to surprise when the scale of building incentives is considered. However, the minor non-residential growth was driven by BC, coinciding with new incentives. In other words, taxpayers are propping up these numbers, and they’re still not great.
Toronto Real Estate
Toronto New Home Prices Jump As Builders Absorb HST Rebate
New home prices in Greater Toronto are rising, even with historically weak demand. The price of a new single-family home climbed 0.6% to $1.42 million in April, and even condos climbed 0.3%. Higher sales accompanied the move, but not enough to explain prices. It was still one of the worst Aprils on record for sales, while inventory was also elevated. The increase is due almost entirely to the HST rebate, as builders adjusted prices to absorb the benefit.
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