Housing construction levels have not matched population growth. Picture: Stefan Postles
Australia’s migration intake has hit new record levels in what experts claim could be exacerbating housing shortages in major capitals – especially for renters.
Analysis of ABS stats showed net permanent and long-term arrivals over the first nine months of 2025 totalled about 415,000 – a new record for the period.
Australia took in a particularly high number of new permanent and long-term arrivals in September, at just under 36,000. The numbers are based on traveller declarations.
This was the second highest intake for a September on a record after 2023, according to the analysis of ABS data by conservative think tank the Institute of Public Affairs.
Institute of Public Affairs executive director Daniel Wild said migration was “out of control”.
“The federal government’s ‘Big Australia’ policy is well and truly in full flight,” Mr Wild said.
“Levels of migrant arrivals should not be blamed on the migrants. This failure belongs to the federal government alone. The numbers are clearly unsustainable.”
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Critics claim high migration intake has exacerbated already high levels of housing demand, particularly at auctions.
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Net permanent and long-term arrivals in the 12 months to the end of September were about 468,000 – exceeding the previous record for this period of year by 4 per cent, the IPA said.
Mr Wild said these numbers indicated elevated arrivals numbers had become “a new norm”, with implications for housing and public infrastructure.
“Is there any wonder that a growing number of Australians want to hit the brakes on migration inflow until such a time that housing, public infrastructure, and critical services are able to keep up with this rapid explosion in population,” Mr Wild said.
Digital Finance Analytics data scientist Martin North said high migration levels were partly responsible for Australia’s mortgage and rental stress levels.
High demand for housing, coupled with sluggish construction activity relative to population growth, meant home prices and rents were continuously rising and families could not keep up, Mr North said.
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Institute of Public Affairs Daniel Wild said inflation was “out of control”. Picture: Richard Gosling
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“I sheet this to first bad policy, including high demand from too much migration,” Mr North said.
“It’s a mess really. Whilst it’s similar in other places like the UK, Australian holds the prize.
“It is worth noting that where migration has been tamed, for example in Canada and New Zealand, rentals and home prices are now falling. This tells us something important.”
Mr Wild said migration was the main force driving population growth.
“Post-pandemic net migration has already more than made up for the fall in net migration during the pandemic years,” he said.
“In fact, it is now gradually replacing the natural increase component of population growth since natural increases have been lower than pre-pandemic expectations.”
NET PERMANENT ARRIVALS JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER 2025
Source: IPA analysis of ABS data
It should be noted that net permanent and long-term arrivals are not the same as net overseas migration, a different ABS measure considered more reliable but published less frequently.
New net overseas migration figures will be released in December. The most recent measure was 315,900 people over the year to March, a decrease of 177,900 people from the year prior.
Mr North said governments needed to step up and adjust town planning to the level of population growth.
“On the supply side, not enough of the right property (is) built in the right places, thanks to poor planning, poor quality construction, and rising construction costs,” he said.
“In addition, the shift to more high-rise living is putting pressure on those who do not want that lifestyle to pay more to live elsewhere (with bigger mortgages).
“Too high migration is the cherry on the cake, once again adding to the stress, and note that the most highly stressed rental cohorts are first generation migrations to Australia.
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“Plus many of those new migrations have walked into to mortgage stress too. So as well as taking property from existing Australians directly, they have become part of the stress story in their own right.”
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