Last year proved a boon for shopping centres bought and sold, particularly in the Sunshine State, and the first half of 2026 has continued that momentum.
Recent research from Knight Frank found commercial transaction volumes had slowed through the first quarter of 2026 to $7.3 billion, yet retail made up nearly half of that figure alone at $3.6 billion.
Retail delivered the strongest total return of all commercial property sectors in 2025, with annual returns of 9.2%.
Shopping centres are posting strong investment returns despite market headwinds and the rise of eCommerce. Picture: Supplied / CBRE
Despite interest rate rises and the conflict in Iran once again dialling up the cost-of-living crisis, households are still spending strongly, and retail assets backed by essential anchor tenants such as Coles and Woolworths are seeing the benefits.
“Retail has entered this period of uncertainty from a position of strength,” said Alistair Read, Knight Frank’s senior economist, research and consulting.
“Supply-side constraints, population growth and improving income fundamentals remain powerful structural supports for the sector.”
A CBRE report found the majority of shopping centres had two to three supermarkets, making up 11% of gross lettable area (GLA), typically comprising of 8,500sqm of floor space, though this can be as high as 13,000sqm.
The rise of ‘mini majors’ too bolsters the strength of shopping centres; shops such as Chemist Warehouse, Cotton On, JB Hi-Fi and Rebel typically make up about 15% of GLA.
CBRE found vacancies are tightening; 60% of retail centres boast vacancy rates of 5% or less.
Re-leasing spreads are now also consistently back in positive territory after a prolonged Covid and post-Covid slump.
Shopping centres are, by and large, able to keep shops occupied. Picture: CBRE
In lieu of supply constraints – as noted by CBRE and Knight Frank – the sector is expected to perform strongly through the decade.
CBRE forecasts retail sales to hit $530 billion by the end of the decade, representing 55% growth, aided by strong population growth and a generally robust jobs market.
Smaller neighbourhood centres have led investment returns over the past decade at 9.4% p.a. yet CBRE forecasts that larger retail centres will see the biggest rebound over the next few years, potentially doubling to 9% p.a.
Simon Rooney, CBRE’s head of retail capital markets for the pacific region, said the ‘flight to quality’ phenomenon noted in other asset classes – primarily office – has also been seen in retail.
“Overarching investor sentiment remains positive, performance is expected to become increasingly asset specific, with a flight to core, high quality retail holdings, with income sustainability and future growth playing a central role in pricing outcomes,” he said.
Ashmore City Shopping Centre is for sale in a popular time for retail centres in Queensland. Picture: Supplied, CBRE
How shopping centres are changing with the times
Research from the major brokers found retail centres that diversified their offering tended to perform more strongly.
Wellness hubs and ‘Instagrammable experiences’ diversify away from the traditional retail frameworks. The growth of eCommerce isn’t leading to a depression in bricks-in-mortar; rather, it’s facilitating the rise of click-and-collect areas, where a shoppers tend to stay and shop for something else.
CBRE found eCommerce penetration is sitting at a “sustainable” 0.6% p.a. for a total of 15% as a share of overall retail turnover.
As a share of wallet, experiences and wellness – rather than traditional goods and services – are growing their presence in retail centres.
“Look good, feel good and travel well – we estimate these categories have taken an extra 8% share of wallet over the past 20 years,” CBRE’s report read.
“The 6% of wallet saved on Alcohol and Tobacco is now directed towards Recreation, Health and Apparel.”
The past 20 years has seen a huge shift away from alcohol and tobacco spending to gyms and wellness. Picture/Research: CBRE, ABS
Think lettable area going to gyms, spas, beauty and nails, and travel companies to keep footfall flowing.
Ray White head of research Vanessa Rader pointed to research indicating that Australia is the world’s seventh-largest wellness economy, with Aussies spending big on gyms, spas, saunas and associated health and apparel.
Here the wellness economy is worth $141 billion or more than $5,000 per person annually – sharply higher than the global average of $831.
“Shopping centres anchored by wellness operators aren’t adapting to competition; they’re redefining what retail destinations provide,” Ms Rader said.
“Australians now allocate budgets previously spent on alcohol and entertainment toward longevity and performance optimisation, making wellness anchors remarkably stable income sources even during economic uncertainty.”
Ms Rader said “dwell time” increases dramatically, which then spills over to spending in other areas of shopping centres, such as athletic apparel and healthy foods.
Gyms are increasingly popular tenants at shopping centres, which increases ‘dwell time’ and expenditure tips over into associated retail outlets. Picture: Getty
Sunshine State the shopping capital
The Sunshine State is currently benefiting from strong investor capital inflows coupled with a constrained supply pipeline.
CBRE indicates that 0.7 million sqm of shopping centre supply over 2026–2028, which is not keeping pace with continued strong increase in population – about one million expected – in that time.
NSW is getting the bulk of this, at 48% or 336,000sqm; Queensland is less than half that at 22% or 154,000sqm.
For reference, Australia’s largest shopping centre – Chadstone in Melbourne – spans more than 237,000sqm.
Nationally, more than two thirds of the supply pipeline is concentrated on small neighbourhood affairs, rather than larger centres.
PropTrack data shows retail yields had compressed in Queensland to 8.2% in Brisbane and 7.5% in the rest of the state, indicating strong capital growth. This was notable given most other areas’ retail yields had softened over the first quarter of 2026.
Yields are compressing across many locations and sectors. Picture: PropTrack
Queensland shopping centres for sale
Some compelling retail listings are also online in the Sunshine State.
Eight Mile Plains Shopping Centre, in Brisbane’s south, is for sale. Picture: realcommercial.com.au
Recently, Ashmore City Shopping Centre on the Gold Coast hit the market, managed by CBRE agents Michael Hedger, Joe Tynan and Mark Witheriff.
It’s anchored by ‘mini major’ Chemist Warehouse, and comprises of nearly 8,800sqm of GLA.
Ney Road Shopping Centre in the emerging Brisbane bayside suburb of Capalaba is also offered by Ray White, with fully-leased net income fetching nearly $600,000 per annum, and 11 tenancies across two buildings.
Flagstone Central Shopping Centre, on the outer-southwest fringe of Brisbane, has hit the market as well – for sale via CBRE’s Michael Hedger, Joe Tynan and Mikaela O’Farrell.
Newly constructed in 2020, it comprises of 9,528sqm GLA and is anchored by Woolworths and Aldi.
Flagstone is currently a strong growth area of greater Brisbane.
QIC offloaded the Logan Hyperdome to MA Financial in late 2025 in a blockbuster $600m-plus deal. Picture: Supplied
Eight Mile Plains shopping centre has also been listed for the first time in around 40 years, comprising of 30 tenancies and 3,553sqm GLA – it’s offered by Ray White.
The Dawn Retail Centre, close to Westfield North Lakes in Brisbane’s northern growth corridor, is also under development, and leases are currently being offered by Ray White.
These continue from a strong 2025, with landmark transactions such as the Logan Hyperdome selling for more than $600 million, and a 25% stake in Chermside Shopping centre trading hands from Scentre Group to Dexus at a strong 5.16% initial yield.
Chermside is Queensland’s largest shopping centre spanning more than 156,000sqm GLA.
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