Mortgage Rates Hitting 8% This Year Is Not Impossible—and Yet, That Shouldn’t Be Buyers’ Biggest Concern

Last week, mortgage rates hit a three-year high—a headline that has been on repeat for several months. In fact, in less than four months, the rate has risen a percentage point. The average rate on 30-year fixed home loans rose to 6.49% for the week ending July 9—now it stands at 7.40% for the week ending Oct. 8, up 12 basis points from 7.28% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac.The question now becomes when will the rates hit a breaking point—and could that breaking point be an 8% rate?Economists aren’t convinced that will happen, but the major drivers of the rate hikes also don’t seem to be letting up anytime soon. The chances of an 8% mortgage in 2026Those who watch the rates closest and know the history of our markets best agree that while rates have been on an upswing, the likelihood of an 8% rate this year is slim.“Buyers should not be too concerned about rates hitting 8% by year end,” says Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com®. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.86% in September, and based on our research on rate volatility, that average moving up by 114 basis points is a 96th percentile result. This means that in only about 4% of three-month periods s...