Have mortgage rates peaked, or will we see even more chaos?

In this week’s epic battle over mortgage rates, we’re straight out of the movie Gladiator when he says, “Hold the line, stay with me.” For the 10-year yield, the key 5.35% level held last week, preventing further escalation of rates in October. No matter how crazy the news has been over the last week, we held the line. The question is: have mortgage rates peaked for 2026, or will this unresolved conflict drive rates toward 8% or higher? 10-year yield and mortgage rates In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the following ranges: Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75% The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60% Since the first MOU deal between Iran and the U.S. fell apart in July, the bond market has been extremely volatile. When President Trump said in September that there would be no deal until after the midterms, it pushed the bond market further, pushing the 10-year yield to a critical technical point not seen in a long time.Despite significant bad news last week, the 10-year yield held its ground. I discussed this with Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler on this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast, emphasizing how October can set the housing baseline for the n...