Hobart home prices are set to rise in 2026, says SQM Research’s Louis Christopher. Picture: Supplied
The only way is up for Hobart home prices.
SQM Research’s annual Boom and Bust report, released Tuesday, has forecast at least a 3 per cent rise in Hobart dwelling prices next year.
At the top end, the real estate research firm offered two scenarios where prices could climb by 10 per cent.
Latest PropTrack figures put Hobart’s median dwelling price at $682,000. A 3 per cent increase would push it $20,460 higher.
A 10 per cent, or $68,200 increase, would take the typical Hobart home up to $750,200.
In regional Tasmania, a 3 per cent uptick would push the median from $530,000 to $545,900. A 10 per cent climb puts it at $583,000.
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Fall Real Estate has No.6 Whelan Crs, West Hobart priced at $1.25m-plus.
The report’s “base case” scenario by SQM managing director Louis Christopher included a 25-50 base point interest rate cut from mid-2026, a steady but sluggish economy, and inflation at 2.5-2.7 per cent as a yearly average.
If this comes to fruition, a 4-7 per cent increase in dwelling values is expected for Hobart, he says.
In scenario 3 or 4, Hobart could see a 6-10 per cent rise. This requires either a 0.75-1 per cent rate cut through 2026 plus unemployment rising to 5.5 per cent; or 0.5-0.75 per cent rate cuts, lower inflation (1.9-2.1 per cent) and falling unemployment back to the low 4 per cent range.
Last year, Mr Christopher’s scenario 3 forecast of 1-5 per cent growth was correct with Hobart rising by 3 per cent in the 12 months to November.
No.22A South St, Battery Point is for sale Elders Tasmania for “Offers over $795,000”.
Mr Christopher said Tasmania’s rental vacancies and homes listed for sale remain “tight”.
“The total number of property for sale has dipped below long-term averages in some areas, but are still above 2022 levels,” he said.
“Overall, the listing numbers suggest a balanced market.
“It is expected that the 2026 Tassie economy will be somewhat sluggish, and unemployment growth moderating to about 0.6-1 per cent.
“Tasmania’s population grew by 0.3 per cent in the year to March 2025, translating into additional demand for some 700 dwellings.
“Over that time, about 1000 dwellings were completed, suggesting a mild surplus.
“As we look to 2026, the outlook is shaped by a range of potential economic paths, from a sluggish economy — which is our base case — through to sticky inflation delaying rate relief, to a global slowdown; or even a robust economic rebound is possible.”
SQM Research Boom and Bust Report 2026 forecasts.
Meanwhile, ANZ has forecast a 2.1 per cent housing price increase for Hobart next year, while Westpac has forecast a 3 per cent rise.
In August, KPMG forecast a modest 1.7 per cent house price increase in 2026, and 2.7 per cent growth for units in Hobart.
Hobart was named among the nation’s least affordable capital cities for renters in National Shelter’s Rental Affordability Index report.
The Boom and Bust Report can be purchased from the SQM Research website.
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